S&P +0.66%; Nasdaq +1.05%; VIX ended at 15.52.
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S&P 500 rises 0.66%Nearly every sector joined the advance
Nasdaq +1.05%, 0.39 points ahead of the S&P 500. Among the largest stocks, TSLA led at +2.20% and MU trailed at -1.02%.
A 1.65-point spread separated the best and worst sectors.
Cap weight outperformed by 0.01 percentage points. This is a participation proxy, not an attribution of index contributions.
BriefThe tape
Major indexes
Previous close to latest close. Sparklines show the verified regular-hours session path when available.
SPX+0.66%
7,773.95
S&P 500
View asset→COMP+1.05%
27,477.31
Nasdaq Composite
View asset→DJIA+0.18%
51,267.90
Dow Jones
View asset→VIX+1.37%
15.52
CBOE Volatility
View asset→10Y+0.57%
5.31%
10-Year Treasury
View asset→DXY+0.22%
102.15
U.S. Dollar Index
View asset→BTC-0.83%
$85,766
Bitcoin
View asset→ETH-0.52%
$2,712
Ethereum
View asset→Chapter 01
Overview
How today fits the recent run of sessions, and the markets you follow.
OverviewRegime history
Recent regimes
Today's regime in the context of recent sessions. Select a day to see its inputs.
LAST 60 SESSIONS13 constructive29 mixed18 defensive
MixedMon, Oct 5, 2026S&P 500 +0.66% · VIX +1.37% · 10/11 sectors upPublished in that day's issue
Solid cells were published in an archived issue (12); outlined cells are reconstructed from daily closes with the same rule, using only that day's moves. Constructive: S&P 500 up, VIX down, all 11 sector ETFs reporting and at least 60% advancing. Defensive: S&P 500 down, VIX up, all 11 reporting and at most 40% advancing. Otherwise mixed.
OverviewHistorical context
How this session compared
Context is calculated only from earlier archived Daily Tape sessions, so the comparison never uses future data.
Prior 11-session average: 44.6%
Percentile rank within the current plus prior archived-session sample.
Consecutive archived sessions with the same regime classification.
Materials ranked first in 1 consecutive archived session and 3 of the last 10.
Compounded from five archived Daily Tape session returns.
Chapter 02
Leadership & participation
What is actually participating in the move?
LeadershipSector leadership
Sector returns, ranked
All 11 sector ETFs ranked by session return, with weighting and participation checks.
CAP-WEIGHTED (SPY)+0.67%
EQUAL-WEIGHT (RSP)+0.66%
ADVANCING / DECLINING10 / 1
POSITIVE SECTORS90.9%
Materials (XLB) led at +1.31% and Real Estate (XLRE) trailed at -0.34%, a 1.65-point gap. Interpretation: The return spread marks relative sector leadership, without establishing fund flows or a verified catalyst.
01Materials (XLB)+1.31%
02Comm. Services (XLC)+1.17%
03Energy (XLE)+1.00%
04Financials (XLF)+0.73%
05Healthcare (XLV)+0.72%
06Cons. Staples (XLP)+0.63%
07Technology (XLK)+0.56%
08Cons. Discretionary (XLY)+0.35%
09Utilities (XLU)+0.35%
10Industrials (XLI)+0.09%
11Real Estate (XLRE)-0.34%
LeadershipRelative strength
Performance versus SPY
Persistent leaders versus one-day winners, measured against SPY.
RELATIVE STRENGTH VS SPYPERCENTAGE POINTS OF TOTAL RETURN · LEADING = AHEAD OF SPY IN ALL THREE WINDOWS
| Name | 1D | 5D | 1M | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TechnologyXLK | -0.11 pp | +2.08 pp | +7.71 pp | Mixed |
| EnergyXLE | +0.33 pp | +0.97 pp | -1.66 pp | Mixed |
| Comm. ServicesXLC | +0.50 pp | -0.81 pp | -1.70 pp | Mixed |
| IndustrialsXLI | -0.58 pp | -0.41 pp | -2.74 pp | Lagging |
| HealthcareXLV | +0.05 pp | -3.47 pp | -3.46 pp | Mixed |
| Cons. StaplesXLP | -0.04 pp | -2.71 pp | -4.77 pp | Lagging |
| Cons. DiscretionaryXLY | -0.32 pp | +0.11 pp | -5.42 pp | Mixed |
| MaterialsXLB | +0.64 pp | -1.14 pp | -5.93 pp | Mixed |
| UtilitiesXLU | -0.32 pp | +0.63 pp | -6.87 pp | Mixed |
| Real EstateXLRE | -1.01 pp | -2.84 pp | -7.76 pp | Lagging |
| FinancialsXLF | +0.06 pp | -1.77 pp | -8.13 pp | Mixed |
| Name | 1D | 5D | 1M | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta PlatformsMETA | +1.23 pp | +2.48 pp | +21.16 pp | Leading |
| Micron TechnologyMU | -1.69 pp | -0.26 pp | +10.59 pp | Mixed |
| NvidiaNVDA | +1.45 pp | +3.19 pp | +4.27 pp | Leading |
| MicrosoftMSFT | +0.81 pp | +1.93 pp | +2.50 pp | Leading |
| BroadcomAVGO | +1.41 pp | +2.51 pp | +1.25 pp | Leading |
| AppleAAPL | -0.91 pp | -2.83 pp | +0.98 pp | Mixed |
| AlphabetGOOGL | +0.19 pp | -0.11 pp | +0.79 pp | Mixed |
| TeslaTSLA | +1.53 pp | +4.75 pp | +0.18 pp | Leading |
| AmazonAMZN | -0.72 pp | +0.94 pp | -3.34 pp | Mixed |
LeadershipMarket internals
Breadth and participation
Participation measured across stated, tracked universes. None of these is presented as NYSE or Nasdaq constituent breadth.
1 declined · 90.9% positive
RSP minus SPY. Cap weight led.
Total-return spread. Persistent positives favor broader participation.
Closing highs vs lows across 24 tracked instruments.
3 of 11 sector ETFs above their moving average.
3 of 11 sector ETFs above their moving average.
4 of 11 sector ETFs above their moving average.
Universes: 11 S&P sector ETFs; SPY and RSP; 20-session highs and lows across sector ETFs, tracked mega-caps, SPY, RSP, QQQ and IWM. Not covered by current data sources: NYSE and Nasdaq advance/decline counts; Exchange-wide new highs and new lows; Share of index constituents above moving averages. These are left out rather than approximated.
Chapter 03
What drove the tape
The verified context around the session, the read it supports, and the names that set the pace.
DriversVerified catalysts
Verified news from the session
Developments published between the prior close and this report, from official sources first and allowlisted publishers second. Listed as context, never as the cause of a move.
No qualifying development from an official source or allowlisted publisher was published in this window. Nothing is substituted.
INTERPRETATIONBASED ON OBSERVED DATA
“Sector ETF participation was broad, which supports the quality of the advance beyond the headline index.”
10 of 11 sector ETFs rose. Interpretation reflects price relationships; no event catalyst is inferred.
DriversMega-cap & AI
Largest companies by market cap
The market’s largest leaders, ordered by market cap: close, session range, daily return, and the latest verified price path.
Among the largest stocks, TSLA led at +2.20% and MU trailed at -1.02%. Interpretation: Dispersion within the selected large-cap sample separates stock-specific exposure from the headline mega-cap narrative.
NVDANvidia · $5.77T
NVDA +2.12%, 1.07 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$238.90
AAPLApple · $4.86T
AAPL -0.24%, 1.29 points behind the Nasdaq.
$332.89
GOOGLAlphabet · $4.24T
GOOGL +0.86%, 0.19 points behind the Nasdaq.
$346.47
MSFTMicrosoft · $3.90T
MSFT +1.48%, 0.43 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$525.18
AMZNAmazon · $2.71T
AMZN -0.05%, 1.10 points behind the Nasdaq.
$251.40
METAMeta Platforms · $1.89T
META +1.90%, 0.85 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$741.90
AVGOBroadcom · $1.73T
AVGO +2.08%, 1.03 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$362.51
TSLATesla · $1.50T
TSLA +2.20%, 1.15 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$378.73
MUMicron Technology · $1.20T
MU -1.02%, 2.07 points behind the Nasdaq.
$1,063.96
Chapter 04
Cross-asset & macro
Yields, oil, the dollar, credit, overseas closes and crypto: the read beyond U.S. equities.
MacroMacro pulse
Yields rose.
Oil fell.
The ten-year yield closed at 5.31%, a +3.00 basis-point change. Interpretation: Higher yields can raise the valuation hurdle for duration-sensitive equities, though co-movement does not prove causality.
POSITIVE SECTOR SHARE90.9%
Cap-weighted S&P +0.67% vs. equal weight +0.66%S&P 500 / REGULAR SESSION7,773.95
DAY LOW7,727.59
DAY HIGH7,794.35
NASDAQ 1D+1.05%
MacroRates & credit
Treasury yields and credit
Session yields, the official Treasury curve, actual credit spreads and bond ETF proxies, each labeled with its source and date.
TREASURY YIELDSSESSION CLOSE (CBOE INDEX) · OFFICIAL PAR CURVE (U.S. TREASURY)
| Tenor | Session close | 1D | Official par | d/d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 4.020% | +3 bps | 4.19% | +2 bps |
| 2Y | No index | — | 4.83% | +5 bps |
| 5Y | 5.070% | +2 bps | 5.06% | +5 bps |
| 10Y | 5.310% | +3 bps | 5.28% | +4 bps |
| 30Y | 5.660% | +3 bps | 5.63% | +2 bps |
Official curve as of Oct 2 (prior session). Treasury publishes it late in the afternoon, so the Close Tape can show the prior session. U.S. Treasury ↗
CURVEBASIS POINTS
CREDITSPREADS ARE ACTUAL OAS · ETF ROWS ARE PRICE PROXIES
REAL YIELDS & RATE VOLATILITYTREASURY REAL PAR CURVE · ICE BOFA MOVE
MacroGlobal check
Overseas closes
Regional closes, daily direction, and each market’s latest verified path. Local closing times differ from New York.
MARKETREGIONCLOSE1DPATH
MacroDigital assets
Major cryptocurrencies
Crypto trades around the clock; each move is measured over the reported session.
BTC-0.83%
$85,766
BitcoinView asset→Verified session data unavailable.
ETH-0.52%
$2,712
EthereumView asset→Verified session data unavailable.
SOL-1.07%
$120
SolanaView asset→Verified session data unavailable.
XRP-1.32%
$1.5000
XRPView asset→Verified session data unavailable.
Chapter 05
Next session
What matters next: the takeaways from this close, the scheduled events, and what to watch.
AheadDecision summary
Three takeaways
The move, the cross-asset read, and the marker that matters next.
The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) +0.66% versus the cap-weighted SPY +0.67%, so the average stock trailed the biggest by 0.01 points.
Cap-weight performance matching equal weight points to participation that was not narrowly concentrated in the largest stocks.
Participation above 10/11 advancing sector ETFs would broaden the next-session reading; lower participation would weaken it. Use 5.31% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns. Compare next-session participation with today’s 6/9 advancing leaders; fewer advancers would narrow leadership.
AheadMarket calendar
Upcoming events
Scheduled events as recorded when this issue was published. U.S. releases, Treasury auctions, tracked earnings and market-structure dates for this session and the next. Times in Central Time.
Report session · Monday, Oct 5
- 8:45 AM CTSource 9:45 AM ETFinal Services PMI
Business surveysImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 58.7
- Previous
- 58.7
- 9:00 AM CTSource 10:00 AM ETISM Services PMI
Business surveysImportance: Medium (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 55.1
- Previous
- 55.4
Next session · Tuesday, Oct 6
- 7:15 AM CTSource 8:15 AM ETADP Weekly Employment Change
EmploymentImportance: Low (source)
- 7:16 AM CTSource 8:16 AM ETADP Weekly Employment Change
EmploymentImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- —
- Previous
- 20.0K
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETTrade Balance
TradeImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- -100.8B
- Previous
- -88.6B
- 9:10 AM CTSource 10:10 AM ETRCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
Economic dataImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 44.5
- Previous
- 45.6
- 9:45 AM CTSource 10:45 AM ETFOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 12:15 PM CTSource 1:15 PM ETFOMC Member Schmid Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 3:30 PM CTSource 4:30 PM ETAPI Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Economic dataImportance: Low (source)
- Time not published3-Year Note auction
Treasury auctionOffering $58B · CUSIP 91282CRQ6
- Time not published6-Week Bill auction (reopening)
Treasury auctionOffering $95B · CUSIP 912797UZ8
AheadForward look
What to watch next
Variables to monitor next, framed as conditions rather than predictions.
- Participation above 10/11 advancing sector ETFs would broaden the next-session reading; lower participation would weaken it.
- Use 5.31% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns.
- Compare next-session participation with today’s 6/9 advancing leaders; fewer advancers would narrow leadership.
01Cross-asset checks+
- Test whether DX-Y.NYB (+0.22%) and GC=F (+0.15%) retain their directional relationship in the next comparable window.
- Test whether CL=F (-2.01%) and ^GSPC (+0.66%) retain their directional relationship in the next comparable window.
02Rates & confirmation+
- Use 5.31% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns.
- Look for agreement between equity direction, volatility and sector participation before treating the move as broadly confirmed.
03Technology leadership+
- Compare next-session participation with today’s 6/9 advancing leaders; fewer advancers would narrow leadership.
- Check whether Nasdaq relative strength persists or converges with the S&P 500.
04Risk dashboard+
- Participation above 10/11 advancing sector ETFs would broaden the next-session reading; lower participation would weaken it.
- Use 5.31% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns.
Reference & methodology
Supporting reference levels, delivery options, and where every number on this page comes from.
13W T-BILL4.02%+3 bps
GOLD$4,168.70+0.15%
WTI CRUDE$89.28-2.01%
RUSSELL 20002,847.14+0.50%