S&P +0.19%; Nasdaq +0.04%; VIX ended at 16.39.
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S&P 500 rises 0.19%Average stocks outpaced the biggest names
5 of 11 sector ETFs rose. Energy (XLE) led at +1.95% and Healthcare (XLV) trailed at -1.32%, a 3.27-point gap.
A 3.27-point spread separated the best and worst sectors.
Equal weight outperformed by 0.29 percentage points. This is a participation proxy, not an attribution of index contributions.
BriefThe tape
Major indexes
Previous close to latest close. Sparklines show the verified regular-hours session path when available.
SPX+0.19%
7,666.45
S&P 500
View asset→COMP+0.04%
26,871.60
Nasdaq Composite
View asset→DJIA+0.04%
50,926.56
Dow Jones
View asset→VIX+0.31%
16.39
CBOE Volatility
View asset→10Y-0.95%
5.24%
10-Year Treasury
View asset→DXY+0.55%
102.01
U.S. Dollar Index
View asset→BTC+1.41%
$84,728
Bitcoin
View asset→ETH+0.60%
$2,700
Ethereum
View asset→Chapter 01
Overview
How today fits the recent run of sessions, and the markets you follow.
OverviewRegime history
Recent regimes
Today's regime in the context of recent sessions. Select a day to see its inputs.
LAST 60 SESSIONS14 constructive28 mixed18 defensive
MixedThu, Oct 1, 2026S&P 500 +0.19% · VIX +0.31% · 5/11 sectors upPublished in that day's issue
Solid cells were published in an archived issue (10); outlined cells are reconstructed from daily closes with the same rule, using only that day's moves. Constructive: S&P 500 up, VIX down, all 11 sector ETFs reporting and at least 60% advancing. Defensive: S&P 500 down, VIX up, all 11 reporting and at most 40% advancing. Otherwise mixed.
OverviewHistorical context
How this session compared
Context is calculated only from earlier archived Daily Tape sessions, so the comparison never uses future data.
Prior 9-session average: 39.4%
Percentile rank within the current plus prior archived-session sample.
Consecutive archived sessions with the same regime classification.
Energy ranked first in 1 consecutive archived session and 1 of the last 10.
Compounded from five archived Daily Tape session returns.
Chapter 02
Leadership & participation
What is actually participating in the move?
LeadershipSector leadership
Sector returns, ranked
All 11 sector ETFs ranked by session return, with weighting and participation checks.
CAP-WEIGHTED (SPY)+0.18%
EQUAL-WEIGHT (RSP)+0.47%
ADVANCING / DECLINING5 / 6
POSITIVE SECTORS45.5%
Energy (XLE) led at +1.95% and Healthcare (XLV) trailed at -1.32%, a 3.27-point gap. Interpretation: Energy led the session while healthcare lagged, highlighting a wide spread between sector performers.
01Energy (XLE)+1.95%
02Technology (XLK)+1.05%
03Industrials (XLI)+0.99%
04Utilities (XLU)+0.61%
05Financials (XLF)+0.11%
06Cons. Discretionary (XLY)-0.03%
07Cons. Staples (XLP)-0.33%
08Materials (XLB)-0.33%
09Real Estate (XLRE)-0.56%
10Comm. Services (XLC)-0.93%
11Healthcare (XLV)-1.32%
LeadershipRelative strength
Performance versus SPY
Persistent leaders versus one-day winners, measured against SPY.
RELATIVE STRENGTH VS SPYPERCENTAGE POINTS OF TOTAL RETURN · LEADING = AHEAD OF SPY IN ALL THREE WINDOWS
| Name | 1D | 5D | 1M | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TechnologyXLK | +0.87 pp | +1.99 pp | +7.31 pp | Leading |
| Comm. ServicesXLC | -1.11 pp | -3.14 pp | -1.07 pp | Lagging |
| IndustrialsXLI | +0.81 pp | +0.30 pp | -2.63 pp | Mixed |
| EnergyXLE | +1.77 pp | +0.59 pp | -3.13 pp | Mixed |
| HealthcareXLV | -1.50 pp | -1.74 pp | -3.32 pp | Lagging |
| Cons. DiscretionaryXLY | -0.21 pp | -0.95 pp | -5.36 pp | Lagging |
| Cons. StaplesXLP | -0.51 pp | -1.26 pp | -5.68 pp | Lagging |
| UtilitiesXLU | +0.43 pp | +1.22 pp | -6.60 pp | Mixed |
| FinancialsXLF | -0.07 pp | -1.55 pp | -6.76 pp | Lagging |
| MaterialsXLB | -0.51 pp | -1.88 pp | -6.86 pp | Lagging |
| Real EstateXLRE | -0.74 pp | -1.92 pp | -7.37 pp | Lagging |
| Name | 1D | 5D | 1M | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta PlatformsMETA | -0.08 pp | -6.22 pp | +25.07 pp | Mixed |
| Micron TechnologyMU | +2.85 pp | +1.97 pp | +17.05 pp | Leading |
| NvidiaNVDA | +0.91 pp | +3.21 pp | +5.79 pp | Leading |
| MicrosoftMSFT | -0.20 pp | +3.39 pp | +1.82 pp | Mixed |
| AppleAAPL | -0.99 pp | -1.25 pp | +1.07 pp | Mixed |
| AlphabetGOOGL | -1.88 pp | -0.78 pp | +0.51 pp | Mixed |
| TeslaTSLA | -0.38 pp | -5.89 pp | -1.09 pp | Lagging |
| AmazonAMZN | -0.55 pp | -0.04 pp | -3.15 pp | Lagging |
| BroadcomAVGO | -2.33 pp | -1.51 pp | -7.39 pp | Lagging |
LeadershipMarket internals
Breadth and participation
Participation measured across stated, tracked universes. None of these is presented as NYSE or Nasdaq constituent breadth.
6 declined · 45.5% positive
RSP minus SPY. Equal weight led.
Total-return spread. Persistent positives favor broader participation.
Closing highs vs lows across 24 tracked instruments.
1 of 11 sector ETFs above their moving average.
2 of 11 sector ETFs above their moving average.
3 of 11 sector ETFs above their moving average.
Universes: 11 S&P sector ETFs; SPY and RSP; 20-session highs and lows across sector ETFs, tracked mega-caps, SPY, RSP, QQQ and IWM. Not covered by current data sources: NYSE and Nasdaq advance/decline counts; Exchange-wide new highs and new lows; Share of index constituents above moving averages. These are left out rather than approximated.
Chapter 03
What drove the tape
The verified context around the session, the read it supports, and the names that set the pace.
DriversVerified catalysts
Verified news from the session
Developments published between the prior close and this report, from official sources first and allowlisted publishers second. Listed as context, never as the cause of a move.
INTERPRETATIONBASED ON OBSERVED DATA
“Broader participation across the average stock stood out relative to the largest names.”
The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) +0.47% versus the cap-weighted SPY +0.18%, so the average stock beat the biggest by 0.29 points. Interpretation reflects price relationships; no event catalyst is inferred.
DriversMega-cap & AI
Largest companies by market cap
The market’s largest leaders, ordered by market cap: close, session range, daily return, and the latest verified price path.
Among the largest stocks, MU led at +3.03% and AVGO trailed at -2.15%. Interpretation: Among the largest companies, performance varied widely, separating individual stock moves from any single shared narrative.
NVDANvidia · $5.57T
NVDA +1.09%, 1.05 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$230.86
AAPLApple · $4.82T
AAPL -0.81%, 0.85 points behind the Nasdaq.
$330.32
GOOGLAlphabet · $4.14T
GOOGL -1.70%, 1.74 points behind the Nasdaq.
$338.24
MSFTMicrosoft · $3.81T
MSFT -0.02%, 0.06 points behind the Nasdaq.
$512.80
AMZNAmazon · $2.68T
AMZN -0.37%, 0.41 points behind the Nasdaq.
$248.23
METAMeta Platforms · $1.85T
META +0.10%, 0.06 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$725.93
AVGOBroadcom · $1.64T
AVGO -2.15%, 2.19 points behind the Nasdaq.
$343.64
TSLATesla · $1.40T
TSLA -0.20%, 0.24 points behind the Nasdaq.
$354.11
MUMicron Technology · $1.24T
MU +3.03%, 2.99 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$1,097.39
Chapter 04
Cross-asset & macro
Yields, oil, the dollar, credit, overseas closes and crypto: the read beyond U.S. equities.
MacroMacro pulse
Yields eased.
Oil gained.
The ten-year yield closed at 5.24%, a -5.00 basis-point change. Interpretation: A pullback in yields offers a softer backdrop for valuations without establishing a direct link to equity performance.
POSITIVE SECTOR SHARE45.5%
Cap-weighted S&P +0.18% vs. equal weight +0.47%S&P 500 / REGULAR SESSION7,666.45
DAY LOW7,616.78
DAY HIGH7,684.75
NASDAQ 1D+0.04%
MacroRates & credit
Treasury yields and credit
Session yields, the official Treasury curve, actual credit spreads and bond ETF proxies, each labeled with its source and date.
TREASURY YIELDSSESSION CLOSE (CBOE INDEX) · OFFICIAL PAR CURVE (U.S. TREASURY)
| Tenor | Session close | 1D | Official par | d/d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 3.980% | -5 bps | 4.20% | -5 bps |
| 2Y | No index | — | 4.88% | -1 bps |
| 5Y | 5.010% | -8 bps | 5.09% | +3 bps |
| 10Y | 5.240% | -5 bps | 5.29% | +3 bps |
| 30Y | 5.600% | -4 bps | 5.64% | +5 bps |
Official curve as of Sep 30 (prior session). Treasury publishes it late in the afternoon, so the Close Tape can show the prior session. U.S. Treasury ↗
CURVEBASIS POINTS
CREDITSPREADS ARE ACTUAL OAS · ETF ROWS ARE PRICE PROXIES
REAL YIELDS & RATE VOLATILITYTREASURY REAL PAR CURVE · ICE BOFA MOVE
MacroGlobal check
Overseas closes
Regional closes, daily direction, and each market’s latest verified path. Local closing times differ from New York.
MARKETREGIONCLOSE1DPATH
MacroDigital assets
Major cryptocurrencies
Crypto trades around the clock; each move is measured over the reported session.
BTC+1.41%
$84,728
BitcoinView asset→BTC-USD +1.41% for the reported session.
ETH+0.60%
$2,700
EthereumView asset→ETH-USD +0.60% for the reported session.
SOL+0.17%
$118
SolanaView asset→SOL-USD +0.17% for the reported session.
XRP+0.67%
$1.5000
XRPView asset→XRP-USD +0.67% for the reported session.
Chapter 05
Next session
What matters next: the takeaways from this close, the scheduled events, and what to watch.
AheadDecision summary
Three takeaways
The move, the cross-asset read, and the marker that matters next.
5 of 11 sector ETFs rose.
Sector participation was mixed, suggesting the broader market move was not uniformly shared.
Participation above 5/11 advancing sector ETFs would broaden the next-session reading; lower participation would weaken it. Use 5.24% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns. Compare next-session participation with today’s 3/9 advancing leaders; fewer advancers would narrow leadership.
AheadMarket calendar
Upcoming events
Scheduled events as recorded when this issue was published. U.S. releases, Treasury auctions, tracked earnings and market-structure dates for this session and the next. Times in Central Time.
Report session · Thursday, Oct 1
- 4:30 AM CTSource 5:30 AM ETChallenger Job Cuts y/y
Economic dataImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- —
- Previous
- -38.5%
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETUnemployment Claims
EmploymentImportance: Medium (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 201K
- Previous
- 197K
- 8:05 AM CTSource 9:05 AM ETFOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 8:05 AM CTSource 9:05 AM ETFOMC Member Collins Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 8:05 AM CTSource 9:05 AM ETFOMC Member Schmid Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 8:45 AM CTSource 9:45 AM ETFinal Manufacturing PMI
Business surveysImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 56.9
- Previous
- 57.0
- 9:00 AM CTSource 10:00 AM ETConstruction Spending m/m
Economic dataImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 0.0%
- Previous
- -0.5%
- 9:00 AM CTSource 10:00 AM ETFOMC Member Waller Speaks
Central bankImportance: Medium (source)
- 9:00 AM CTSource 10:00 AM ETISM Manufacturing PMI
Business surveysImportance: Medium (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 54.8
- Previous
- 54.6
- 9:00 AM CTSource 10:00 AM ETISM Manufacturing Prices
Business surveysImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 72.9
- Previous
- 71.1
- 9:15 AM CTSource 10:15 AM ETOmdia Total Vehicle Sales
Economic dataImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 16.3M
- Previous
- 16.8M
- 9:30 AM CTSource 10:30 AM ETNatural Gas Storage
EnergyImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 63B
- Previous
- 53B
- 12:30 PM CTSource 1:30 PM ETFOMC Member Jefferson Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 2:00 PM CTSource 3:00 PM ETFOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 2:30 PM CTSource 3:30 PM ETFOMC Member Cook Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 5:45 PM CTSource 6:45 PM ETFOMC Member Logan Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
Next session · Friday, Oct 2
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETAverage Hourly Earnings m/m
Economic dataImportance: High (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 0.3%
- Previous
- 0.3%
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETNon-Farm Employment Change
EmploymentImportance: High (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 89K
- Previous
- 162K
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETUnemployment Rate
EmploymentImportance: High (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 4.1%
- Previous
- 4.1%
- 9:00 AM CTSource 10:00 AM ETFOMC Member Logan Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 9:00 AM CTSource 10:00 AM ETFactory Orders m/m
Business surveysImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 0.1%
- Previous
- 0.9%
AheadForward look
What to watch next
Variables to monitor next, framed as conditions rather than predictions.
- Participation above 5/11 advancing sector ETFs would broaden the next-session reading; lower participation would weaken it.
- Use 5.24% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns.
- Compare next-session participation with today’s 3/9 advancing leaders; fewer advancers would narrow leadership.
01Cross-asset checks+
- Test whether DX-Y.NYB (+0.55%) and GC=F (+0.52%) retain their directional relationship in the next comparable window.
- Test whether CL=F (+2.78%) and ^GSPC (+0.19%) retain their directional relationship in the next comparable window.
02Rates & confirmation+
- Use 5.24% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns.
- Look for agreement between equity direction, volatility and sector participation before treating the move as broadly confirmed.
03Technology leadership+
- Compare next-session participation with today’s 3/9 advancing leaders; fewer advancers would narrow leadership.
- Check whether Nasdaq relative strength persists or converges with the S&P 500.
04Risk dashboard+
- Participation above 5/11 advancing sector ETFs would broaden the next-session reading; lower participation would weaken it.
- Use 5.24% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns.
Reference & methodology
Supporting reference levels, delivery options, and where every number on this page comes from.
13W T-BILL3.98%-5 bps
GOLD$4,208.30+0.52%
WTI CRUDE$92.93+2.78%
RUSSELL 20002,806.63+0.35%