S&P -0.25%; Nasdaq +0.24%; VIX ended at 16.34.
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S&P 500 falls 0.25%Narrow gains as most sectors slipped
The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) -0.71% versus the cap-weighted SPY -0.21%, so the average stock trailed the biggest by 0.50 points. Among the largest stocks, AAPL led at +1.10% and META trailed at -1.84%.
A 2.17-point spread separated the best and worst sectors.
Cap weight outperformed by 0.50 percentage points. This is a participation proxy, not an attribution of index contributions.
BriefThe tape
Major indexes
Previous close to latest close. Sparklines show the verified regular-hours session path when available.
SPX-0.25%
7,651.54
S&P 500
View asset→COMP+0.24%
26,861.06
Nasdaq Composite
View asset→DJIA-0.86%
50,906.05
Dow Jones
View asset→VIX+1.87%
16.34
CBOE Volatility
View asset→10Y+0.57%
5.29%
10-Year Treasury
View asset→DXY+0.13%
101.50
U.S. Dollar Index
View asset→BTC-0.03%
$83,600
Bitcoin
View asset→ETH+0.03%
$2,678
Ethereum
View asset→Chapter 01
Overview
How today fits the recent run of sessions, and the markets you follow.
OverviewRegime history
Recent regimes
Today's regime in the context of recent sessions. Select a day to see its inputs.
LAST 60 SESSIONS14 constructive27 mixed19 defensive
DefensiveWed, Sep 30, 2026S&P 500 -0.25% · VIX +1.87% · 1/11 sectors upPublished in that day's issue
Solid cells were published in an archived issue (9); outlined cells are reconstructed from daily closes with the same rule, using only that day's moves. Constructive: S&P 500 up, VIX down, all 11 sector ETFs reporting and at least 60% advancing. Defensive: S&P 500 down, VIX up, all 11 reporting and at most 40% advancing. Otherwise mixed.
OverviewHistorical context
How this session compared
Context is calculated only from earlier archived Daily Tape sessions, so the comparison never uses future data.
Prior 8-session average: 43.2%
Percentile rank within the current plus prior archived-session sample.
Consecutive archived sessions with the same regime classification.
Technology ranked first in 1 consecutive archived session and 2 of the last 9.
Compounded from five archived Daily Tape session returns.
Chapter 02
Leadership & participation
What is actually participating in the move?
LeadershipSector leadership
Sector returns, ranked
All 11 sector ETFs ranked by session return, with weighting and participation checks.
CAP-WEIGHTED (SPY)-0.21%
EQUAL-WEIGHT (RSP)-0.71%
ADVANCING / DECLINING1 / 10
POSITIVE SECTORS9.1%
Technology (XLK) led at +0.64% and Cons. Staples (XLP) trailed at -1.53%, a 2.17-point gap. Interpretation: Technology held up best while consumer staples lagged, marking a wide split between sector performance.
01Technology (XLK)+0.64%
02Energy (XLE)-0.06%
03Cons. Discretionary (XLY)-0.28%
04Comm. Services (XLC)-0.45%
05Utilities (XLU)-0.68%
06Materials (XLB)-0.81%
07Real Estate (XLRE)-1.04%
08Financials (XLF)-1.13%
09Industrials (XLI)-1.27%
10Healthcare (XLV)-1.35%
11Cons. Staples (XLP)-1.53%
LeadershipRelative strength
Performance versus SPY
Persistent leaders versus one-day winners, measured against SPY.
RELATIVE STRENGTH VS SPYPERCENTAGE POINTS OF TOTAL RETURN · LEADING = AHEAD OF SPY IN ALL THREE WINDOWS
| Name | 1D | 5D | 1M | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TechnologyXLK | +0.85 pp | +0.87 pp | +5.43 pp | Leading |
| Comm. ServicesXLC | -0.24 pp | -0.74 pp | +0.21 pp | Mixed |
| HealthcareXLV | -1.14 pp | +0.45 pp | -0.50 pp | Mixed |
| EnergyXLE | +0.15 pp | -0.71 pp | -2.91 pp | Mixed |
| IndustrialsXLI | -1.06 pp | -1.16 pp | -4.05 pp | Lagging |
| Cons. StaplesXLP | -1.32 pp | -1.55 pp | -4.18 pp | Lagging |
| UtilitiesXLU | -0.47 pp | -0.11 pp | -5.57 pp | Lagging |
| Cons. DiscretionaryXLY | -0.07 pp | -0.96 pp | -6.09 pp | Lagging |
| Real EstateXLRE | -0.83 pp | -1.55 pp | -6.13 pp | Lagging |
| MaterialsXLB | -0.60 pp | -2.46 pp | -6.79 pp | Lagging |
| FinancialsXLF | -0.92 pp | -1.42 pp | -6.81 pp | Lagging |
| Name | 1D | 5D | 1M | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta PlatformsMETA | -1.63 pp | -1.86 pp | +27.17 pp | Mixed |
| Micron TechnologyMU | +0.21 pp | +0.04 pp | +11.45 pp | Leading |
| AppleAAPL | +1.31 pp | -0.52 pp | +5.45 pp | Mixed |
| NvidiaNVDA | +0.72 pp | +1.94 pp | +3.92 pp | Leading |
| AlphabetGOOGL | +1.14 pp | +2.53 pp | +1.81 pp | Leading |
| MicrosoftMSFT | +0.98 pp | +3.12 pp | +1.44 pp | Leading |
| TeslaTSLA | +0.77 pp | -5.98 pp | -3.22 pp | Mixed |
| AmazonAMZN | +1.22 pp | +0.63 pp | -3.74 pp | Mixed |
| BroadcomAVGO | -0.89 pp | -0.40 pp | -4.64 pp | Lagging |
LeadershipMarket internals
Breadth and participation
Participation measured across stated, tracked universes. None of these is presented as NYSE or Nasdaq constituent breadth.
10 declined · 9.1% positive
RSP minus SPY. Cap weight led.
Total-return spread. Persistent positives favor broader participation.
Closing highs vs lows across 24 tracked instruments.
1 of 11 sector ETFs above their moving average.
2 of 11 sector ETFs above their moving average.
3 of 11 sector ETFs above their moving average.
Universes: 11 S&P sector ETFs; SPY and RSP; 20-session highs and lows across sector ETFs, tracked mega-caps, SPY, RSP, QQQ and IWM. Not covered by current data sources: NYSE and Nasdaq advance/decline counts; Exchange-wide new highs and new lows; Share of index constituents above moving averages. These are left out rather than approximated.
Chapter 03
What drove the tape
The verified context around the session, the read it supports, and the names that set the pace.
DriversVerified catalysts
Verified news from the session
Developments published between the prior close and this report, from official sources first and allowlisted publishers second. Listed as context, never as the cause of a move.
- Cook, The Dual Mandate in Rural AmericaFederal Reserve
- Major Economic Indicators Latest NumbersU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- GDP, (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
INTERPRETATIONBASED ON OBSERVED DATA
“Equity declines, rising volatility and weak sector participation together point toward a cautious backdrop.”
S&P 500 -0.25%; VIX +1.87%; 9% of sector ETFs rose. Interpretation reflects price relationships; no event catalyst is inferred.
DriversMega-cap & AI
Largest companies by market cap
The market’s largest leaders, ordered by market cap: close, session range, daily return, and the latest verified price path.
Among the largest stocks, AAPL led at +1.10% and META trailed at -1.84%. Interpretation: Large individual names moved in different directions, showing leadership was uneven rather than uniform.
NVDANvidia · $5.51T
NVDA +0.51%, 0.27 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$228.38
AAPLApple · $4.86T
AAPL +1.10%, 0.86 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$333.02
GOOGLAlphabet · $4.21T
GOOGL +0.93%, 0.69 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$344.08
MSFTMicrosoft · $3.81T
MSFT +0.77%, 0.53 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$512.90
AMZNAmazon · $2.69T
AMZN +1.01%, 0.77 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$249.15
METAMeta Platforms · $1.85T
META -1.84%, 2.08 points behind the Nasdaq.
$725.18
AVGOBroadcom · $1.68T
AVGO -1.10%, 1.34 points behind the Nasdaq.
$351.19
TSLATesla · $1.40T
TSLA +0.56%, 0.32 points ahead of the Nasdaq.
$354.81
MUMicron Technology · $1.20T
MU +0.00%, 0.24 points behind the Nasdaq.
$1,065.11
Chapter 04
Cross-asset & macro
Yields, oil, the dollar, credit, overseas closes and crypto: the read beyond U.S. equities.
MacroMacro pulse
Yields rose.
Oil gained.
The ten-year yield closed at 5.29%, a +3.00 basis-point change. Interpretation: Higher yields raise the bar for valuations, though this alignment alone does not prove a direct link.
POSITIVE SECTOR SHARE9.1%
Cap-weighted S&P -0.21% vs. equal weight -0.71%S&P 500 / REGULAR SESSION7,651.54
DAY LOW7,651.54
DAY HIGH7,722.88
NASDAQ 1D+0.24%
MacroRates & credit
Treasury yields and credit
Session yields, the official Treasury curve, actual credit spreads and bond ETF proxies, each labeled with its source and date.
TREASURY YIELDSSESSION CLOSE (CBOE INDEX) · OFFICIAL PAR CURVE (U.S. TREASURY)
| Tenor | Session close | 1D | Official par | d/d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 4.030% | -4 bps | 4.25% | -3 bps |
| 2Y | No index | — | 4.89% | -3 bps |
| 5Y | 5.090% | +3 bps | 5.06% | +0 bps |
| 10Y | 5.290% | +3 bps | 5.26% | +2 bps |
| 30Y | 5.640% | +5 bps | 5.59% | +3 bps |
Official curve as of Sep 29 (prior session). Treasury publishes it late in the afternoon, so the Close Tape can show the prior session. U.S. Treasury ↗
CURVEBASIS POINTS
CREDITSPREADS ARE ACTUAL OAS · ETF ROWS ARE PRICE PROXIES
REAL YIELDS & RATE VOLATILITYTREASURY REAL PAR CURVE · ICE BOFA MOVE
MacroGlobal check
Overseas closes
Regional closes, daily direction, and each market’s latest verified path. Local closing times differ from New York.
MARKETREGIONCLOSE1DPATH
MacroDigital assets
Major cryptocurrencies
Crypto trades around the clock; each move is measured over the reported session.
BTC-0.03%
$83,600
BitcoinView asset→BTC-USD -0.03% for the reported session.
ETH+0.03%
$2,678
EthereumView asset→ETH-USD +0.03% for the reported session.
SOL-1.01%
$118
SolanaView asset→SOL-USD -1.01% for the reported session.
XRP+0.00%
$1.4900
XRPView asset→XRP-USD +0.00% for the reported session.
Chapter 05
Next session
What matters next: the takeaways from this close, the scheduled events, and what to watch.
AheadDecision summary
Three takeaways
The move, the cross-asset read, and the marker that matters next.
The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) -0.71% versus the cap-weighted SPY -0.21%, so the average stock trailed the biggest by 0.50 points.
The average stock lagged the largest names, suggesting gains were concentrated rather than broadly shared.
Participation above 1/11 advancing sector ETFs would broaden the next-session reading; lower participation would weaken it. Use the -0.50 percentage-point RSP-minus-SPY spread as the reference: a rise favors broader participation; a decline favors cap-weight leadership. Use 5.29% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns.
AheadMarket calendar
Upcoming events
Scheduled events as recorded when this issue was published. U.S. releases, Treasury auctions, tracked earnings and market-structure dates for this session and the next. Times in Central Time.
Report session · Wednesday, Sep 30
- 7:15 AM CTSource 8:15 AM ETADP Non-Farm Employment Change
EmploymentImportance: Medium (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 73K
- Previous
- 38K
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETCore PCE Price Index m/m
InflationImportance: High (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 0.3%
- Previous
- 0.2%
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETFinal GDP Price Index q/q
InflationImportance: Medium (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 6.4%
- Previous
- 6.4%
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETFinal GDP q/q
GrowthImportance: High (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 1.5%
- Previous
- 1.5%
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETGoods Trade Balance
TradeImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- -116.3B
- Previous
- -118.8B
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETPersonal Income m/m
ConsumerImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 0.5%
- Previous
- 0.4%
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETPersonal Spending m/m
ConsumerImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 0.8%
- Previous
- 0.2%
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETPrelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
Economic dataImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 0.5%
- Previous
- 1.3%
- 8:45 AM CTSource 9:45 AM ETChicago PMI
Business surveysImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 51.2
- Previous
- 47.1
- 9:30 AM CTSource 10:30 AM ETCrude Oil Inventories
EnergyImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- -0.7M
- Previous
- 3.0M
- 12:30 PM CTSource 1:30 PM ETFOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 2:25 PM CTSource 3:25 PM ETFOMC Member Cook Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 2:30 PM CTSource 3:30 PM ETPresident Trump Speaks
Economic dataImportance: Medium (source)
- 4:10 PM CTSource 5:10 PM ETFOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 5:00 PM CTSource 6:00 PM ETFOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Central bankImportance: Medium (source)
- Time not publishedMU earnings
EarningsRelease time not provided
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- EPS est. 31.82
- Previous
- —
Next session · Thursday, Oct 1
- 4:30 AM CTSource 5:30 AM ETChallenger Job Cuts y/y
Economic dataImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- —
- Previous
- -38.5%
- 7:30 AM CTSource 8:30 AM ETUnemployment Claims
EmploymentImportance: Medium (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 201K
- Previous
- 197K
- 8:05 AM CTSource 9:05 AM ETFOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 8:05 AM CTSource 9:05 AM ETFOMC Member Collins Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 8:05 AM CTSource 9:05 AM ETFOMC Member Schmid Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 8:45 AM CTSource 9:45 AM ETFinal Manufacturing PMI
Business surveysImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 56.9
- Previous
- 57.0
- 9:00 AM CTSource 10:00 AM ETConstruction Spending m/m
Economic dataImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 0.0%
- Previous
- -0.5%
- 9:00 AM CTSource 10:00 AM ETFOMC Member Waller Speaks
Central bankImportance: Medium (source)
- 9:00 AM CTSource 10:00 AM ETISM Manufacturing PMI
Business surveysImportance: Medium (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 54.8
- Previous
- 54.6
- 9:00 AM CTSource 10:00 AM ETISM Manufacturing Prices
Business surveysImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 72.9
- Previous
- 71.1
- 9:15 AM CTSource 10:15 AM ETOmdia Total Vehicle Sales
Economic dataImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 16.3M
- Previous
- 16.8M
- 9:30 AM CTSource 10:30 AM ETNatural Gas Storage
EnergyImportance: Low (source)
- Actual
- —
- Consensus
- 63B
- Previous
- 53B
- 12:30 PM CTSource 1:30 PM ETFOMC Member Jefferson Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 2:00 PM CTSource 3:00 PM ETFOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 2:30 PM CTSource 3:30 PM ETFOMC Member Cook Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- 5:45 PM CTSource 6:45 PM ETFOMC Member Logan Speaks
Central bankImportance: Low (source)
- Time not published4-Week Bill auction (reopening)
Treasury auctionOffering $100B · CUSIP 912797VP9
- Time not published8-Week Bill auction (reopening)
Treasury auctionOffering $95B · CUSIP 912797VZ7
AheadForward look
What to watch next
Variables to monitor next, framed as conditions rather than predictions.
- Participation above 1/11 advancing sector ETFs would broaden the next-session reading; lower participation would weaken it.
- Use the -0.50 percentage-point RSP-minus-SPY spread as the reference: a rise favors broader participation; a decline favors cap-weight leadership.
- Use 5.29% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns.
01Cross-asset checks+
- Test whether DX-Y.NYB (+0.13%) and GC=F (+0.21%) retain their directional relationship in the next comparable window.
- Test whether CL=F (+1.31%) and ^GSPC (-0.25%) retain their directional relationship in the next comparable window.
02Rates & confirmation+
- Use 5.29% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns.
- Look for agreement between equity direction, volatility and sector participation before treating the move as broadly confirmed.
03Technology leadership+
- Compare next-session participation with today’s 6/9 advancing leaders; fewer advancers would narrow leadership.
- Check whether Nasdaq relative strength persists or converges with the S&P 500.
04Risk dashboard+
- Participation above 1/11 advancing sector ETFs would broaden the next-session reading; lower participation would weaken it.
- Use the -0.50 percentage-point RSP-minus-SPY spread as the reference: a rise favors broader participation; a decline favors cap-weight leadership.
Reference & methodology
Supporting reference levels, delivery options, and where every number on this page comes from.
13W T-BILL4.03%-4 bps
GOLD$4,188.40+0.21%
WTI CRUDE$90.55+1.31%
RUSSELL 20002,796.86-0.39%