S&P +1.49%; Nasdaq +2.26%; VIX ended at 14.87.
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Tech Leadership DrivesUneven Market Gains
S&P 500 +1.49% at the close. Nasdaq +2.26% versus S&P 500 +1.49%, a +0.77 percentage-point spread.
A 6.19-point spread separated the best and worst sectors.
Cap weight outperformed by 0.99 percentage points. This is a participation proxy, not an attribution of index contributions.
BriefThe tape
Major indexes
Previous close to latest close. Sparklines show the verified regular-hours session path when available.
Chapter 01
Overview
How today fits the recent run of sessions, and the markets you follow.
OverviewRegime history
Recent regimes
Today's regime in the context of recent sessions. Select a day to see its inputs.
Solid cells were published in an archived issue (2); outlined cells are reconstructed from daily closes with the same rule, using only that day's moves. Constructive: S&P 500 up, VIX down, all 11 sector ETFs reporting and at least 60% advancing. Defensive: S&P 500 down, VIX up, all 11 reporting and at most 40% advancing. Otherwise mixed.
OverviewHistorical context
How this session compared
Context is calculated only from earlier archived Daily Tape sessions, so the comparison never uses future data.
Prior 1-session average: 18.2%
Percentile rank within the current plus prior archived-session sample.
Consecutive archived sessions with the same regime classification.
Comm. Services ranked first in 1 consecutive archived session and 1 of the last 2.
Needs five consecutive archived sessions.
Chapter 02
Leadership & participation
What is actually participating in the move?
LeadershipSector leadership
Sector returns, ranked
All 11 sector ETFs ranked by session return, with weighting and participation checks.
Comm. Services (XLC) +3.89% ranked highest; Energy (XLE) -2.30% ranked lowest, separated by 6.19 percentage points. Interpretation: The spread between top and bottom sectors highlights relative leadership rather than a uniform market advance.
LeadershipRelative strength
Performance versus SPY
Persistent leaders versus one-day winners, measured against SPY.
| Name | 1D | 5D | 1M | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TechnologyXLK | +1.34 pp | +3.96 pp | +4.88 pp | Leading |
| Comm. ServicesXLC | +2.34 pp | -1.87 pp | +2.34 pp | Mixed |
| EnergyXLE | -3.85 pp | -4.53 pp | -3.09 pp | Lagging |
| FinancialsXLF | -1.12 pp | -3.56 pp | -3.19 pp | Lagging |
| HealthcareXLV | -0.80 pp | -0.77 pp | -3.23 pp | Lagging |
| Cons. StaplesXLP | -1.96 pp | -4.24 pp | -5.02 pp | Lagging |
| Cons. DiscretionaryXLY | -0.25 pp | -2.24 pp | -5.27 pp | Lagging |
| Real EstateXLRE | -0.55 pp | -2.31 pp | -6.40 pp | Lagging |
| MaterialsXLB | -1.65 pp | -3.00 pp | -6.40 pp | Lagging |
| IndustrialsXLI | -1.14 pp | -1.61 pp | -6.85 pp | Lagging |
| UtilitiesXLU | -1.89 pp | -3.97 pp | -8.09 pp | Lagging |
| Name | 1D | 5D | 1M | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta PlatformsMETA | +9.88 pp | +9.54 pp | +34.26 pp | Leading |
| IntelINTC | +10.59 pp | +23.41 pp | +30.50 pp | Leading |
| Advanced Micro DevicesAMD | +8.40 pp | +22.85 pp | +29.44 pp | Leading |
| SanDiskSNDK | -2.96 pp | +11.92 pp | +8.71 pp | Mixed |
| AppleAAPL | -0.70 pp | -0.14 pp | +7.23 pp | Mixed |
| Micron TechnologyMU | +1.22 pp | +11.08 pp | +5.49 pp | Leading |
| NvidiaNVDA | +0.75 pp | +5.88 pp | +3.33 pp | Leading |
| MicrosoftMSFT | +0.04 pp | -2.66 pp | +2.57 pp | Mixed |
| AmazonAMZN | +0.32 pp | +0.03 pp | -2.31 pp | Mixed |
LeadershipMarket internals
Breadth and participation
Participation measured across stated, tracked universes. None of these is presented as NYSE or Nasdaq constituent breadth.
4 declined · 63.6% positive
RSP minus SPY. Cap weight led.
Total-return spread. Persistent positives favor broader participation.
Closing highs vs lows across 24 tracked instruments.
2 of 11 sector ETFs above their moving average.
4 of 11 sector ETFs above their moving average.
5 of 11 sector ETFs above their moving average.
Universes: 11 S&P sector ETFs; SPY and RSP; 20-session highs and lows across sector ETFs, tracked mega-caps, SPY, RSP, QQQ and IWM. Not covered by current data sources: NYSE and Nasdaq advance/decline counts; Exchange-wide new highs and new lows; Share of index constituents above moving averages. These are left out rather than approximated.
Chapter 03
What drove the tape
The verified context around the session, the read it supports, and the names that set the pace.
DriversVerified catalysts
Verified news from the session
Developments published between the prior close and this report, from official sources first and allowlisted publishers second. Listed as context, never as the cause of a move.
Unavailable at generation: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases.
“Cap-weighted outperformance points to concentrated leadership rather than broad-based index gains.”
RSP +0.56% versus SPY +1.55%; equal weight minus cap weight -0.99 percentage points. Interpretation reflects price relationships; no event catalyst is inferred.
DriversMega-cap & AI
Largest companies by market cap
The market’s largest leaders, ordered by market cap: close, session range, daily return, and the latest verified price path.
INTC +12.14% ranked highest in the available technology sample; SNDK -1.41% ranked lowest. Interpretation: Wide dispersion among selected technology names separates stock-specific strength from the broader sector narrative.
AAPL +0.85%, -1.41 percentage points versus Nasdaq.
MSFT +1.59%, -0.67 percentage points versus Nasdaq.
NVDA +2.30%, +0.04 percentage points versus Nasdaq.
AMZN +1.87%, -0.39 percentage points versus Nasdaq.
META +11.43%, +9.17 percentage points versus Nasdaq.
SNDK -1.41%, -3.67 percentage points versus Nasdaq.
AMD +9.95%, +7.69 percentage points versus Nasdaq.
INTC +12.14%, +9.88 percentage points versus Nasdaq.
MU +2.77%, +0.51 percentage points versus Nasdaq.
Chapter 04
Cross-asset & macro
Yields, oil, the dollar, credit, overseas closes and crypto: the read beyond U.S. equities.
MacroMacro pulse
Yields eased.
Oil fell.
The ten-year yield closed at 4.96%, a -4.00 basis-point change. Interpretation: A modest pullback in yields may ease valuation pressure on rate-sensitive equities, though correlation alone does not confirm the linkage.
MacroRates & credit
Treasury yields and credit
Session yields, the official Treasury curve, actual credit spreads and bond ETF proxies, each labeled with its source and date.
| Tenor | Session close | 1D | Official par | d/d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 3.980% | +0 bps | 4.14% | +2 bps |
| 2Y | No index | — | 4.76% | +9 bps |
| 5Y | 4.830% | -3 bps | 4.86% | +8 bps |
| 10Y | 4.960% | -4 bps | 5.01% | +7 bps |
| 30Y | 5.300% | -3 bps | 5.34% | +5 bps |
Official curve as of Sep 18 (prior session). Treasury publishes it late in the afternoon, so the Close Tape can show the prior session. U.S. Treasury ↗
MacroGlobal check
Overseas closes
Regional closes, daily direction, and each market’s latest verified path. Local closing times differ from New York.
MacroDigital assets
Major cryptocurrencies
Crypto trades around the clock; each move is measured over the reported session.
Verified session data unavailable.
Verified session data unavailable.
Verified session data unavailable.
Verified session data unavailable.
Chapter 05
Next session
What matters next: the takeaways from this close, the scheduled events, and what to watch.
AheadDecision summary
Three takeaways
The move, the cross-asset read, and the marker that matters next.
RSP +0.56% versus SPY +1.55%; equal weight minus cap weight -0.99 percentage points.
The gap between equal-weight and cap-weight performance suggests leadership remains narrow rather than broadly participatory.
Participation above 7/11 advancing sector ETFs would broaden the next-session reading; lower participation would weaken it. Use 4.96% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns. Compare next-session participation with today’s 8/9 advancing technology names; fewer advancers would narrow leadership.
AheadMarket calendar
Upcoming events
Scheduled events as recorded when this issue was published. U.S. releases, Treasury auctions, tracked earnings and market-structure dates for this session and the next. Times in Central Time.
Next session · Tuesday, Sep 22
- 1:30 AM CTSource 06:30 GMTFed Goolsbee Speaks
Central bank
- 3:30 AM CTSource 08:30 GMTChicago Fed National Activity
Central bank
- Actual
- -0.04
- Consensus
- —
- Previous
- 0.08
- 6:30 AM CTSource 11:30 GMT3-Month Bill Auction
Treasury auction
- Actual
- 4.015%
- Consensus
- —
- Previous
- 3.970%
- 6:30 AM CTSource 11:30 GMT6-Month Bill Auction
Treasury auction
- Actual
- 4.155%
- Consensus
- —
- Previous
- 4.060%
AheadForward look
What to watch next
Variables to monitor next, framed as conditions rather than predictions.
- Participation above 7/11 advancing sector ETFs would broaden the next-session reading; lower participation would weaken it.
- Use 4.96% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns.
- Compare next-session participation with today’s 8/9 advancing technology names; fewer advancers would narrow leadership.
01Cross-asset checks+
- Test whether DX-Y.NYB (+0.21%) and GC=F (-0.93%) retain their directional relationship in the next comparable window.
- Test whether CL=F (-4.51%) and ^GSPC (+1.49%) retain their directional relationship in the next comparable window.
02Rates & confirmation+
- Use 4.96% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns.
- Look for agreement between equity direction, volatility and sector participation before treating the move as broadly confirmed.
03Technology leadership+
- Compare next-session participation with today’s 8/9 advancing technology names; fewer advancers would narrow leadership.
- Check whether Nasdaq relative strength persists or converges with the S&P 500.
04Risk dashboard+
- Participation above 7/11 advancing sector ETFs would broaden the next-session reading; lower participation would weaken it.
- Use 4.96% as the ten-year closing reference; test whether a move above it coincides with weaker technology relative returns.
Reference & methodology
Supporting reference levels, delivery options, and where every number on this page comes from.